Braves vs. Padres prediction odds, picks for Mon. 5/20: How to bet Game 1 of twinbill

Braves vs. Padres Odds

Monday, May 20, 12:20 p.m. ET, SDPA

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Atlanta Braves

Fading Atlanta on Monday is not an indictment on one of baseball's best teams, this is just simply a matchup that should be closer to a pick 'em. Right-hander Reynaldo López takes the mound for the Braves, and he has been tremendous thus far in 2024.

Through seven starts, López is 2-1 with a 1.34 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. His underlying metrics are also solid, but they still suggest regression is looming. The right-hander possesses a 3.71 xERA, while he also ranks in the 24th percentile in hard-hit rate.

Furthermore, I am not sure how much run support we can expect López to receive in this matchup as Atlanta is slated to go against right-hander Dylan Cease. Through 31 career plate appearances against Cease, this current Braves lineup possesses a mere .200 BA, .320 SLG and .312 wOBA.

San Diego Padres

Cease is also off to a tremendous start to the campaign, posting a 5-3 record with a 2.46 ERA and 0.78 WHIP through his first nine starts. His underlying metrics are among the best in baseball, ranking in the 90th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, whiff rate and strikeout rate.

The right-hander has faced Atlanta just once in his career, but it was a successful outing, allowing just one run on three hits through five innings of work en route to an 8-1 victory. Following Cease is a capable bullpen that ranks in the top half of the league in both ERA and xFIP.

This pitching staff should also get plenty of run support considering the Padres rank in the top 10 in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and stolen bases. Meanwhile, through 53 career plate appearances against López, this current San Diego lineup boasts a .272 xBA and .417 xSLG.

Braves vs. Padres

Betting Pick & Prediction

When looking at this matchup, I could see why oddsmakers have Atlanta favored. However, I think a +110 return on San Diego is an over-adjustment.

Both Cease and López have been spectacular, but the edge goes to Cease. Meanwhile, both lineups and bullpens rank nearly neck-and-neck among the key statistical categories.

I think this matchup is pretty much a wash across the board, so in a near-coin-flip game, I will take the better starting pitcher at +110.

Pick: Padres ML (+110 at DraftKings | Play to +105)